I just read an article in Forbes.com by Bernard Marr, dated July 2, 2018, titled “How Artificial Intelligence Could Kill Capitalism”.
There are many topics I could cover today but I had to call this one out.
I think Mr. Marr covered many bullet points of the coming The Fourth Industrial Revolution. He doesn’t call it as such but the meaning is clear.
He leads the article with “if you believe the hype” which is a way of backhanded way brushing it aside.
He labels the nay-sayers claim “at best, it will lead to rising unemployment and civil unrest and at worst, the eradication of humanity.”
“Advocates are telling us to look forward to a future of leisure and creativity as robots take care of the drudgery and routine.”
I am not an expert on these topics but I think the second point refers more to The Singularity rather than just AI.
When computers overtake humans as the workforce of the future around 2040–2050, many predict there will be a panacea for humans to enjoy. I look at Mr.Ray Kurzweil, Google’s Director of Engineering in my blog post “Choices or Not? The Singularity, Quantum Computing. Mr. Kurzweil is a great intellect and a great read. His website is kurweilai.net.
Mr. Marr states that the ‘third camp is happy to admit the forces of change which are at work are too complicated to predict. For the moment, everything is up in the air.’
This, to me, is a great cop-out.
If we don’t stand up and holler, no one will ever get the message.
As it is no political force or entity has undertaken the responsibility for starting a large-scale discussion on the opportunities of AI.
I believe the first camp, the naysayers, will then prevail.
Benjamin Franklin’s quote applies here “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail”.
Failing to plan, on the scale of America alone will be disastrous.
Failing to plan on a scale of the ‘free’ world (excluding Russia and China for the sake of this discussion) will be a holocaust.
Since Trump is dismantling the foundations of cooperation and support among ‘free’ nations, the non-American elements will fare better than they would if they were still tied to America’s apron.
They stand a better chance of solving the coming upheaval alone as evidenced by some Scandinavian countries already experimenting with ‘Universal Basic Income’.
Mr. Marr pans basic income because “it’s basic”.
He quotes the author Culum Chace “Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities” ‘if all we can do is give people a basic income, we’ve failed, and society probably isn’t saveable.”
A test has to start at the beginning. The beginning is basic. And that’s where Scandinavian countries are starting. (Finland, where the test group is 2,000 unemployed people, the Netherlands, Kenya, Canada).
Also, two US states are taking part in a non-government-sponsored random study sponsored by Y Combinator. This study of 3,000 people is across two states.
The city of Stockton California is the first government-sponsored trial by giving 100 people, $500 per month.
I agree with Mr. Marr that neither the tech industry nor the government are making an effort to address the revolution which is already underway in our country.
He says a concerted and informed effort from governments is necessary and the tech industry is more focused on profits than any motive for getting the change right.
Mr. Chace argues that people “will see these robots driving around taking people’s jobs, and think ‘it won’t be long until they come for mine’ – and then there will be a panic. And panics lead to nasty populist politicians, of the left or right, being elected.”
This has already happened.
‘The Intolerants’ in my blog post are parading as white supremacists and neo-Nazi sympathizers scaring the bejesus out of people.
Most industries have accepted AI and their workforces are already fearful.
Look at the grocery industry.
People recognize that self-checkout lanes are affecting cashiers and how fewer are being employed.
The trucking industry has many tests running and some companies are already using driverless semi-trucks as a way of mitigating the lack of over-the-road truckers to deliver their goods.
Some companies, Uber, Embark, Otto, and Budweiser have embraced the new tech and are running at full steam ahead.
Mr. Chace states that “people aren’t stupid”.
He is right. People are talking. People are putting the puzzle together.
Many are in denial ‘I won’t go to a grocery store that uses self-checkout lanes’.
Some of these people now say “I won’t use self-checkout lanes because it is taking jobs away from people”.
Some people don’t seem to care as evidenced by the increase in the number of self-checkout proliferating in stores.
People are well down the road that Mr. Marr describes.
In America, the energy that would be spent on this issue is now directed to Mr. Trump and his policies.
But the tech revolution is not waiting for them.
They will turn their heads and get whiplash due to the rapid advance of AI technology in almost every aspect of their lives.
Then the ‘weeping and gnashing of teeth’ (Gospel of Luke 13:28) will begin in earnest.
The sad thing is at least one year, if not more, will be have been lost, wasted because no one was paying attention to the advance of the ‘machines’.
It may then be too late.
The naysayers will have won. So many jobs lost. So many companies will have accepted the challenges of AI and bent them to apply to their bottom lines.
The first thousands of jobs are already lost. Many more thousands are on the way, just because people thought other things more important.
Greedy, ‘first to the fire’ people have mimicked and even debauched the real purpose of IoT. They have developed all kinds of shiny, new gadgets to capture wild imaginations.
Instead, they could have understood the real benefit of IoT which is IoTh, the Internetof Thinking.
How do we think differently?
How do we apply all the new data?
How do we enable people to think about ways to improve the world?
Can we overcome the advantage the naysayers have gained by being first in line to apply the new, ‘gee whiz’ gadgets of AI?
Can we change the direction of ‘gee whiz’ into a road that will find sustenance for all people physically and intellectually and spiritually?
Somebody has to be the ‘grownup in the room’ so we can be ready for the real biggie, ‘The Singularity’.
The tech revolution aka The Fourth Industrial Revolution
What an amazing story. The video of the control rooms shuddered with hundreds of guys (and I assume women) jumping up and down hugging each other! I will try to post that when it is available. Methane has also been found. Very rudimentary signs of the building blocks of life but astonishing nonetheless.
This artificial nerve doesn’t communicate in 0s and 1s like our computer systems.
The nerve “fires” like a biological nerve. This allows it to “talk” with a body. It talks not just to a body but also with an artificial “brain.” The processes are on a neuro-morphic computer chip that can power the next generation of robots, the bio-robots.
Now, think of the benefits to every person that is wearing a prosthetic device. Some devices already have sensors embedded. But these are not similar to our complex nerve communications.
Our nervous system is extremely complex. In a small piece of skin are thousands of receptors sensitive to pressure, temperature, pain, itchiness, and texture.
How can this be translated to artificial nerves?
The answer from “Kim and colleagues: forget computers, it’s time to go neural.” Using electrical patterns the body understands is the ‘neural code’.
Dr. Chiara Bartolozzi at the Italian Institute of Technology in Genova said: “The neural code is at the same time rich and efficient, being an optimal choice to design artificial systems for sensing and perception.”
This is going to be HUGE. Stayed Tuned.
”Robots will be able to Feel Touch with this Artificial Nerve” singularity.com Shelly Fan
Brain Madeaux was missing an enzyme because of a rare disease called Hunter Syndrome.
The cost of medications used to help alleviate some of the damage caused by this disease was between $100,000 and $400,000 per year!
“Sangamo Therapeutics inject Brian with viruses containing a package of gene-editing material. The hope was that these viruses will enter the liver cells, inject the missing gene at the right place in his DNA. Only about 1% of the liver cells need to be fixed and give his liver the ability to produce the enzyme.
It worked! The first gene therapy inside the body worked!
Dr. Lion Shaha from the UCL Institue of Epidemiology and Health said “People’s belief (in what causes cancer) are so important because they have an impact on the lifestyle choices we make. Those with better awareness of proven causes of cancer were more likely not to smoke and to eat more fruits and vegetables.”
The findings of a study published in the European Journal of Cancer showed that of 1,330 people in England more than 40% thought that stress and food additives cause cancer.
Another third of the people believed electromagnetic frequencies cause cancer. 19% thought microwaves ovens did, and 15% said drinking from plastic bottles cause cancer.
“Belief in mythical causes did not mean a person was more likely to have risky lifestyle habits.”
But those with better awareness, 88% selected smoking, 80% selected passive smoking and 60% said sunburn, also made better choices.
Dr. Samuel Smith from the University of Leeds said: “It’s worrying to see so many people endorse risk factors for which there is no convincing evidence.”
He continues “people believing in unproven causes of cancer has increased since the start of the century.”
Perhaps the way we receive and digest information could be a cause.
I have some research that I will share in a future post regarding this because it is very significant in that the results pose enormous ethical questions.
Part of this research grabbed my attention because of the rise of populism and authoritarianism.
I don’t think people embrace otherness because they believe in the fake causes of cancer but that their choice of accepting fake news, in general, leads to this interpretation of the causes of cancer.
Another interesting take would be if the numbers in the US would be similar.
CONNECTION AND CONTENTMENT
My usual post contains information on how technologies are and will be affecting human lives in such areas as jobs and personal satisfaction. I won’t disappoint but I do want to share a longer-term view first.
Pew Research asked experts in a variety of fields to render their opinion on how technology, specifically the Internet of Things (IoT) are going to affect people.
Their answers were broken down into categories: IoT will have a positive impact, IoT will not be positive, and IoT will provide remedies that may mitigate some problems that will arise.
In this article by Janna Anderson and Lee Rainie of the Pew Institute on April 19, 2018, titled “The Future of Well-Being in a Tech-Saturated World.”
“When the Pew Research Center asked American internet users for their bottom-line judgment about the role of digital technology in their own lives, the vast majority felt it is a good thing.”
Daniel Weitzner of MIT’s Internet Research Policy declared that “the internet is the ultimate connection machine.”
People can gain fulfillment with other people thru internet pursuits for politics, Community affairs, education, science, romance, economic life are areas that the internet connects people. People can gain fulfillment by addressing these areas with other people.
The Pew Research Center then asked experts in several widely varied fields for their judgments on the internet and its effects on peoples’ lives.
“A plurality of experts say digital life will continue to expand people’s boundaries and opportunities in the coming decade and that the world to come will produce more help than harm in people’s lives. Still, nearly a third think that digital life will be harmful to people’s health, mental fitness, and happiness. Most did say there are solutions.”
There is so much to this article I strongly recommend that you read it.
I want to focus on how all the information that people are consumed by and consumed with boils down to ‘Contentment’. Even in St. Paul’s letter to Timothy (1Tim 6:6), he stresses that “godliness with contentment is a great gain.”
I find that it is hard to be happy in this life so I strive for contentment.
That is why I emphasize the Contentment: by Stephen Downes. Mrs. Downes is a senior research officer at the National Research Council Canada.
He commented, “The Internet will help rather than harm people’s well-being because it breaks it breaks down barriers and supports them in their ambitions and objectives.”
He continues with more specific examples. “We see a lot of disruption today caused by this feature, as individuals and companies act out a number of less desirable ambitions and objectives.”
Race, intolerance, greed, and criminality have always lurked beneath the surface, and it is no surprise to see them surface.”
People desire to educate themselves,
People desire to communicate with others,
People desire to share their experiences,
People desire to create networks of enterprise, commerce, and culture. All of these are supported by digital technologies, and while they may not be as visible and disruptive as the less-desireable objectives, they are just as real and far more massive.”
This man seems to have found contentment in that he can verbalize people’s characteristics so eloquently.
Other topics covered in this article:
Commerce, Government, and Society
I am going to write a follow-on article because there are so many areas and the one that I promised to cover- jobs, employment, and the economy- got squeezed out of this foundation article.
A lot of new things in the email today, and a few from recent revelations.
Robots can’t jump like Fleas. Why?
“A New Mathematical Model may help explain why we can’t create (yet) a robot that jumps like a flea” From Neurosciencenews.com April 28, 2018 Source: Duke University
An ant in “a zero-to-60 matchup, the fastest dragster would have little chance”. The ant can reach speeds of more than 140 mph in less than a millisecond to nab its prey.
A hydra is a soft-bodied aquatic creature. It defends itself using the capsules that are located on its tentacles that act like pressurized balloons.
“When trigger they fire a barrage of microscopic spears that briefly accelerate 100 times faster than a bullet.”
Can this new model help scientists create robots that mimic the jaw-dropping characteristics found in nature?
Scientists can look to insects and aquatic life to copy how creatures strike, jump, chomp, and punch.
These creatures or organisms don’t do these things using muscles but rather “spring loaded parts they can cock and release like an archer’s bow”, said Sheila Patek, associate professor of biology at Duke University.
This mini robot was inspired by the anatomy and jumping mechanism of a flea.
“The model allows researchers to test different settings of spring, latch, and motor or muscle parameters to determine the speed, acceleration, and other aspects of performance.
Let’s Tangle with some Atoms
Today on singularityhub.com “Scientists Discover How to Harness the Power of Quantum Spookiness by Entangling Clouds of Atoms.” Robert Young April 27, 2018
Einstein quipped that entanglement’s “spooky at a distance” – one particle in an “entangled pair” affects its twin instantaneously – no matter how far away.
Famously bizarre, these are real effects “that have been seen in laboratories over and over.”
Three European research groups have just managed to entangle not just a pair of these particles, but separate clouds of thousands of atoms- that they can harness.
My today’s lesson in quantum mechanics: “When particles are entangled they share properties in a way that make them dependent on each other, even when they are separated by long distances.
Experiments have shown these properties“exceptionally useful”. A particle in one location can spin and its pair will then spin also (teleportation).
They can also help store a huge amount of information in a given volume (super dense coding).
Another advantage of entanglement is that computers can be linked in different parts of the globe.
In addition to helping to make quantum computing (quantum internet) possible, secure communications (see my post at this link regarding Quantum Computing).
Any attempt to interfere (hack) into a quantum system immediately disrupts the entanglement making it obvious that a message has been tampered with.
They have crafted a system using a satellite to transmit data. If a computer nerd tried to hack into the transmission the transmission is immediately destroyed. Quantum theory states that with Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) a quantum photon cannot be copied perfectly and will leave a trace if disturbed. I have read that if such a ‘hack’ occurs the transmission will be destroyed (although the original document will not be disturbed).
Quantum mechanics is frontier that has been studied and researched since Max Planck and Albert Einstein began the theories that came to make up quantum mechanics, quantum physics, and many other observations to explain what Classical Physics cannot.
Quantum mechanics has led to the race to build the first commercially viable quantum computer (see my post )at deepeducationweb.com). IBM has built one that can operate for 90 microseconds due to the extreme heat that it generates.
The operating temperature for the quantum computer has to be as it is in deep space.
So far we have touched on entangling atoms for data storage, how a pair can react the same way without constraints on the distance of separation, quantum secure communications.
Canadian researchers at the University of Waterloo are designing systems to replace the Arctic radar system that exists today.
They are designing the system to use “quantum illumination” using entangled photons.
Have we seen these events before? Maybe in Star Trek? Gene Roddenberry is becoming more astute every day.
of tiny and IMMENSE
At its IBM Think 2018 conference, IBM unveiled inventions and technologies such as AI, Blockchain, and Quantum Computing.
It smallest computer is 1mm x 1mm which is smaller than a grain of fancy salt and costs less than ten cents to manufacture. This information is courtesy of “The Verge”, March 19, 2018, in an article by Paul Miller @futurepaul
As published on singularityhub.com “A Data Storage Revolution? DNA Can Store New Limitless Data in Almost Zero Space” by Peter H. Diamandis, MD April 26, 2018.
Our voracious appetite for “MORE” is creating a problem of immense proportions.
Immense problems breed IMMENSE COSTS and IMMENSE PROFITS! Last year, $20 billion was spent on new data centers in the US ALONE!
Where to store all of this stuff?
On January 31, 2018, in a report out of Redmond WA, Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft stated: “this quarter’s results (Dec 2017) speak to the differentiated value we are delivering to customers across our productivity solutions and as the hybrid cloud provider of choice.”
Yesterday Amazon reported quarterly profits triple of what analysts predicted. Sales reached $51 billion “which is a 43% increase over last year’s first quarter results.” Net Income for the quarter was $1.6 BILLION. These massive increases are attributed to retail business and cloud computing services.
Five days ago Alphabet announced profits increased 84% with a quarterly profit of $9.4 billion.
In this post on The Guardian, the huge increase is attributed to the “clicks and views” of Google ads on its search engine, YouTube etc.
By the end of the decade, projections for 2020 are the addition of 5 BILLION new minds to join the web.
“Memory grade silicon is rarely found pure in nature and researchers predict it will run out by 2040!”
DNA though can theoretically store 215 million gigabytes of data in a single gram of DNA!
I am sorry but this is another of those super technical lessons that would just get mangled under my explanation so I direct you to this link to study at your leisure.
I am safe in predicting that even with its potential for profit and the knowledge it will solve the data storage problem this process will take time.
Moore’s Law, the observation by the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel, Gordon Moore.
He postulated that the use of integrated circuits doubles about every two years and that chip performance (David House an executive at Intel) would double every 18 months.
While this prediction has proven accurate for decades the upper limits of the law (an observation not actually a law) are rapidly approaching. Most recently, in 2015 Mr. Moore stated, “I see Moore’s law dying in the next decade or so.” This is the reason for the aggressive push for quantum computers.
So the push is on: quantum computing and computers, increase in storage processes to enable the growth of computing, and increases in security, driven by quantum mechanics.
Soon to arrive on the scene is the storage space required by the exponential growth of computing users and computing devices – DNA, deoxyribonucleic acid.
opened his annual letter “Founders’ Letter” published on Friday, April 27, 2018, by quoting Charles Dicken’s A Tale of Two Cities “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”
As one of the co-founders of Google in 1998, Mr. Brin remarked how computing power has exploded. At the time things like AI, neural networks were “just a forgotten footnote in computer science”.
While in awe of the monthly leaps in developing computer applications he adds “such powerful tools also bring with them new questions and responsibilities.”
While Google has harnessed computers to translate photographic images, translate 100 languages and power navigation systems in automobiles, diagnose disease and discover new planetary systems it strives to be socially conscious and aware of its responsibilities as a corporate citizen.
Google’s development of applications with the US Military has angered many of its employees who have openly protested this segment of its business and demand the withdrawal of Google’s support for these applications even though they are not offensive in nature.
While heralding the “new spring of artificial intelligence” as the most significant developments he cautions of the “technological renaissance” and the danger artificial intelligence can cause if it is not used with the most humble precautions.
High Energy Solar Flares affect the operation of orbiting satellites and can even pose a risk to astronauts on the International Space Station.
However, “CMEs Coronal Mass Ejections, huge eruptions that send clouds of solar plasma streaking through space at millions of miles per hour are the real danger. CMEs that hit earth can spawn intense geomagnetic storms,” and disrupt power grids, satellite navigations, and radio communications.
“In March 1989, a strong CME caused a blackout that left 6 million people in the Canadian province of Quebec without power for 9 hours!”
In 1859 a powerful slammed into Earth generating beautiful auroral displays as far south as the Caribbean. If a geomagnetic storm as strong as that one – known as a Carrington Event, were to hit today the damage could run as high as $600 billion to $2.6 trillon damage in the US alone!
The sun blasted out a coronal mass ejection (CME) along with a part of a solar filament, over a 3 hour period on Feb 24, 2015 Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory NASA
“The U.S government is getting more serious about dealing with the dangers posed by powerful sun storms.”
On Thursday (October 29) the White House released two documents that lay out the new national plan for mitigating the negative effects of solar flares and other types of ‘space weather’.
The space weather can wreak havoc all over the technological earth wiping out communications centers, power grids, and even satellite navigation.
This new plan is called “National Space Weather Strategy”
I started watching this collection of Time Lapse Photography by the astronauts on the International Space Station. My wife brought me a full plate of her out of the world spaghetti and I couldn’t stop watching the panorama of space.
Well, the spaghetti is done but the film isn’t. But I still have at least one more post to repair.
We are moving from our traditional home of 43 years to a tiny teeny apartment. Two bedrooms so it isn’t like a studio but where do you put 43 of accumulation. I don’t even know where to start.
Thanks for stopping by.
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Always an enticing vision causing man to look beyond, beyond the ground, beyond the sky into the New Horizons that have kept calling since the beginning of time.
As a young man with friends, we would set off in September (the nights were getting cold and so kept the mosquitoes at bay), sitting by a warm fire after a long day of paddling in the Boundary Waters, sipping a muscle warming brandy and water staring at the stars. Oh so brilliant, no city lights to dim their glory, to be transported to the land of imagination. What if? I wonder when? Who would have thought? How often?